VoIP Will Not Kill The PSTN, Cellular Will

Thanks for returning. You're a very smart person.

It isn’t too often that I disagree with pal Cory Andrews (or guys like Doug Mohoney or Daniel Beringer); in fact much of my “view” of the telephony world is shaped through Cory and I’s daily ramblings about it. However, after reading his post today, “Heralding the Death of the PSTN“, I don’t believe that the PSTN will be dead within the next 1, 5, 10 or 25 years. Heck, I bet it will still be a live and kicking in 50 years, long after many of us are gone and I certainly do think it will be because of VoIP (if I was going to place a bet it would be on cellular being the PSTN killer).

The reason is pretty simple: user habits.

The biggest hurdle any new technology that wishes to usurp an incumbent has to do with how long it takes to change user habits. Let’s face it, the PSTN telephone hanging on most walls in the US is about as American as apple pie. It has, for decades been a mainstay of the home. Yes, I agree that VoIP is making in-roads and that PSTN subscriber growth is slowing, but that has more to do with cellular, than VoIP (if you do not believe me, starting thinking about how many people’s “home” phone is their cellular phone).

The fact that I know people in my age bracket that have PSTN lines and a cellular phone, do not know what VoIP is and are perfectly happy over-paying for their current services, leads me to believe that it is not my generation that will kill the PSTN (on average we should be around for the next fifty years), but future generation which have grown-up in “PSTN-less” homes. Homes where all they know is cellular or VoIP.

Not enough proof?

Let’s just take a look at the Roger’s Bell below.

VoIP was invented circa 1995. It is now 2008 (13 years later) and I would say that we are at the very end of the early adopter phase or very beginning of the early majority stage. So in 13 years of the technology being alive, it has maybe penetrated 15% of the total market for the service…that’s a percent a year, which would peg the death of the PSTN around 2095. That just goes to show how long it takes to change user’s habits (and how hard it is).

Alright, maybe this is all a bit extremist. However, I hope you get my points. The PSTN won’t be dead anytime soon, VoIP is not the reason for the deterioration of the PSTN subscriber base, VoIP is a long ways away from being a defacto communications choice like the PSTN has been…and the way our world is going, the idea of a defacto communications choice is a failing idea.