Desktop VoIP phones still highly relevant
Posted: July 21st, 2009 | Author: Garrett Smith | Filed under: VoIP Commentary | 5 Comments »You’ve got to hand it to Dave Michels. He’s got a way with words.
His cryptic prophecy for the desktop VoIP phone has many within the VoIP equipment space talking. Being heavily entrenched in the equipment space, I’ve been asked by many executives what I thought about Dave’s prophecy.
Rather than respond individually, I figured I’d post my thoughts here.
To me the real message of the post is lost within some of the sensationalism concerning desktop VoIP phones.
The real message that should have come through is that personal and business communications have become increasingly fragmented. There is more choice in “how to get a hold of someone” today than ever before.
Thus the evolution of communications has limited the total possible growth of desktop VoIP phones.
But desktop VoIP phones aren’t going extinct. And today desktop VoIP phones are still the most relevant enabler of business VoIP calling.
That’s because the phone call is an experience. An experience ingrained into tens of millions of prosumers. It’s an experience tied to a desktop VoIP phone. And won’t soon be untied.
This will fuel continued growth. Growth that will eclipse 2008′s numbers.
Yes desktop VoIP phones will face viable competition. But these competitors have to change prosumer habits.
Something that is tough to do.
Meanwhile desktop VoIP phones will continue to evolve in order to maintain ownership as the preferred means of enabling a call.
After all, manufacturers aren’t going to roll over and die. The recent trend towards media phones is one indication of that.
One thing Dave correctly observes is that people love their cellular phones. They are becoming increasingly more relevant to prosumers.
But I envision a partnership between the cellular phone and desktop phone, sort of like the my Apple IP phone mock from 2007, that will meet the changing needs of the prosumer.
So the real message that the evolutionary fragmentation of communications will limit the potential growth of the desktop VoIP phone over time is true.
However this will also occur for all other current and subsequent forms of communications as technological advancements and evolution continue. Other enablers of business communications are not immune to the fate predicted for the desktop VoIP phone.
The market winner of course will be the device or interface that is the most relevant to the user.
And today that’s the desktop VoIP phone. Something I see continuing for quite sometime.
Great Post Garrett,
I missed the relevant point about competition from totally alternative communication forms; email, social web, blogs, etc.
The “safe” part of my prediction is the decline in sales over the short term due to the economy. I agree that the IP phone will continue to be critical for quite some time. But I feel a shift is starting which may be stronger when the economy recovers.
The conversation from the PBX makers will (continue to) be less about the phone and more about the applications. The media phone is a good strategy (I want one), but I fear their price-point will prevent broad acceptance.
The conversation is shifting. For the past several years, we’ve been selling new phone models based on features; bigger screens, better speakers, more buttons, HD, etc. But now the conversation is moving away from the device and more to broader communications (mobility, presence, etc.). Meanwhile, desktop computers are becoming voice capable (and accepted), and the cell phones are becoming PBX friendly (or the PBXs are embracing the cell phones).
Certainly for now, the IP phone remains important. I have two on my desk! But I also have click to dial, record-a-call, call transfer, and other call manager features on my cell phone. I also attend webinars that use my PC speakers and I make calls on Skype. When I travel, the PC and cell come with me and I don’t miss much functionality.
Dave Michels
In recent times VoIp services which were available in Past like go2call have ended. the new era is about VoIP mobile telephony. I use Vopium and on my mobile this gives me ease of use where ever you are.
@ Dave
Thanks for stopping by an leaving the insightful comment.
I agree that a shift is occurring, but I’m not entirely sold on the fact that it is economically driven. I believe the changing nature of communications is driving the shift.
Take younger generations for example. SMS, IM, Facebook, etc are default communication mediums for them.
They will takes these with them as they grow older and begin their commercial lives.
Since I’m a bit younger than most, I see this everyday. Heck, I even close business transactions via SMS these days.
Communications is changing. It is changing faster than ever before.
And eventually the desktop phone will be obsolete. Or maybe it will just be called something different.
@ Leon
I’m a big fan of mobile VoIP, but its still got a ways to go before it can legitimately compete for a large chunk of the business communications market.
Heck…let’s get people to stop buying digital/TDM and analog phones before we start talking about the VoIP phone going away. I am still seeing a lot of hybrid systems from manufacturers like Avaya and NEC being sold with TDM phones rather than IP.